Winter power prices could more than double after dry summer

Winter electricity prices could be more than twice last year’s level across Sweden after a warm, dry summer left Nordic hydropower reserves well below normal, according to an industry forecast.

Magnus Thorstensson, an electricity-market analyst at Energiföretagen, told SVT that households should allow for higher prices this winter. The forecast is not a fixed tariff and could shift substantially with the weather.

The Nordic water deficit is estimated at 18 terawatt-hours, roughly half of Denmark’s annual electricity use. Lower reservoir levels reduce the amount of flexible hydropower available when demand rises.

The effect is expected nationwide but to be strongest in southern Sweden. Winter power there is currently priced at about 140 öre per kilowatt-hour, compared with around SEK 2 per kilowatt-hour in Germany.

A mild, wet and windy autumn could rebuild the water balance and increase wind generation before winter. A colder or drier season would push in the other direction, so the 140-öre figure remains conditional.

European gas supplies are another risk. Disruption linked to international conflicts has raised fuel costs and electricity futures, and those effects can reach Sweden even when domestic physical supply remains stable. Grid charges, tax and VAT are separate from the quoted wholesale power price.

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