Migration Agency lifts Ukraine protection forecast to 10,000

The Swedish Migration Agency has raised its 2026 forecast for Ukrainian temporary-protection applications by 1,000 to 10,000 after more people arrived than it expected earlier this year.

In its July forecast, the agency says its main scenario assumes EU protection will continue until 4 March 2028. EU countries agreed to that extension on 15 July, but formal Council adoption and publication are still required. The current scheme runs until 4 March 2027.

The agency also expects first-time work-permit applications to rise sharply in 2028 as temporary-protection holders move to employment permits.

Since 11 June, holders can apply inside Sweden for permits based on work, business, research, higher education or an EU Blue Card. They cannot hold both permits. If a new permit is granted, they must ask for their temporary-protection permit to be revoked.

That switch can end Migration Agency housing and daily allowance under the reception system, and it can affect support from the Public Employment Service or Social Insurance Agency. The employment route for this group uses a 75% threshold, not the general 90%, while normal collective-agreement or industry pay and other conditions still apply. Anyone switching must apply before temporary protection expires and be prepared for changes to housing and support.

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