Sweden set aside SEK 1.3bn as return-grant applications slowed
The Migration Agency cut its 2026 forecast from SEK 1.363 billion to SEK 90 million after lowering expected approvals to 500 a year.
Sweden funded a major expansion of voluntary return grants, but the Migration Agency cut this year's forecast by more than SEK 1,200 million within months. The revision tests whether the programme's political scale was ever matched by demand among the people expected to leave.
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The agency's February forecast expected SEK 1.363 billion in repatriation-grant spending during 2026. The appropriation reflected the political ambition for a much larger voluntary-return programme.
By July, the same agency's new forecast was SEK 90 million. It expected 500 grants to be approved annually after fewer applications arrived in recent months.
Applications are not departures, and appropriated funds are not payments. The July estimate can change as information spreads or eligibility decisions progress. Slow early take-up may also reflect the normal launch of a new benefit.
The size of the revision nevertheless challenges the demand assumptions behind a flagship policy. A grant can be generous on paper while eligible residents remain unwilling, unaware, ineligible or unconvinced that leaving is in their interest.
Government should publish the model used to set the original budget, distinguish applications, approvals, payments and completed departures, and state the programme's success threshold. Without those measures, unused money can be presented as commitment while actual demand remains obscured.
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