Swedish prison forecast puts annual costs at up to SEK 85bn

Sweden could need 45,000 prison and remand places by 2045, with annual costs reaching SEK 80–85 billion, according to the prison service’s latest forecast. That compares with about 13,000 places today and costs of SEK 24 billion this year.

Kriminalvården director-general Rikard Jermsten told SVT that meeting the projected increase could require the equivalent of five Kumla prisons each year. The forecast is 11,000 places higher than the agency’s spring estimate.

The figures depend on sentencing changes and their implementation. Jermsten said reforms had been decided rapidly and the agency would adjust its forecasts against actual outcomes.

Moderate MP Fredrik Kärrholm disputes the projection, arguing that longer imprisonment prevents repeat offences and reduces future admissions. Stockholm University criminologist Felipe Estrada instead warned that expansion could squeeze work to prevent reoffending.

Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer told SVT that the Moderates want to abolish sentence discounts for multiple offences by 2029 while maintaining security and rehabilitation. He said this would require both substantial expansion and other measures.

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