Poll gives opposition 10-point lead as Centre Party hits 8%

A new SVT/Verian poll gives Sweden’s four opposition parties a 10-point lead ahead of the 13 September election, with 53.9% support against 43.9% for the Tidö parties.

The Centre Party rises from 5.4% in June to 8.0%, the only statistically significant party-level change. Verian says C gained voters broadly, while SVT reports the largest flows came from the Social Democrats and Liberals.

The other shifts are within the poll’s uncertainty. S is on 30.5%, SD 18.5%, M 17.3%, V and MP 7.7% each, KD 6.2% and L 1.9%, below the 4% parliamentary threshold. Verian says M remains significantly below its 2022 election result, while C is significantly above its result.

Verian conducted 3,043 online and telephone interviews with a random national sample of adults from 3 to 16 August, weighted by gender, age, education and 2022 vote. A further 13.8% did not name a party, down from 15.4% in June but not significantly. The report says a bloc change must exceed 2.5 percentage points to be significant; the bloc gap was therefore stable.

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