Opposition projection opens Andersson's path back

Magdalena Andersson's path back to the prime minister's office opened on Wednesday evening after a new election projection said the governing bloc could no longer reach a parliamentary majority. The remaining count can still shift individual seats, and no prime minister has yet been chosen.

SVT's election model gives at least a 99.9 per cent probability that S, V, C and MP will win a combined majority. Fewer than 50 electoral districts remained, while the projected margin moved between 176–173 and 175–174.

The projection is not a formal result and does not appoint a government. The final count must be completed before the parliamentary process determines who can govern.

Under the Riksdag's rules, Ulf Kristersson can resign and trigger talks led by the Speaker. If he stays, the newly elected Riksdag must vote on him within two weeks of assembling; 175 no votes would force his departure.

The projection strengthens Andersson's negotiating position. Whether she returns as prime minister will depend on the final count, the Speaker's consultations and whether a proposed government can avoid 175 votes against it.

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