Liberals reach 4.3% as Sweden's election tightens

The Liberals have reached 4.3% in a new Novus poll, putting the party's point estimate above Sweden's parliamentary threshold six days before the election.

The party gained 1.0 percentage point, a statistically significant movement. Novus cautions, however, that the 4.3% result is not statistically secure above the 4% threshold. TV4 reports that this is the first time since 2022 that the party's point estimate has cleared the line in this polling series.

For Liberal leader Simona Mohamsson, the headline is the party's point estimate above 4%, but the threshold crossing is not statistically secure.

The opposition parties total 50.3%, compared with 47.9% for the four Tidö parties. The 2.4-point gap is within the poll's uncertainty, so Novus does not find a statistically secure lead for either bloc.

The poll puts the Social Democrats on 27.0%, the Sweden Democrats on 19.7%, the Moderates on 17.9%, the Left Party on 7.8%, the Green Party on 7.8%, the Centre Party on 7.7%, the Christian Democrats on 6.0% and the Liberals on 4.3%.

Novus surveyed 2,888 eligible Swedish voters aged 18 and over from 1 to 5 September. Responses were collected mainly through Kivra and text messages, with telephone interviews used for the oldest group. The national random sample was weighted for sex, age, education, region and vote in 2022.

For Sweden's international community, the voting-rights line matters. Swedish citizens, including naturalised and foreign-born citizens, can vote in the Riksdag election. Non-citizen residents cannot vote for parliament, although the result will shape migration, work, family and household policies that affect them.

Sweden votes on Sunday, 13 September.

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