Foreign-born voters are not a bloc. The election may turn on that mistake

Statistics Sweden says foreign-born voters are less certain about the 2026 election than Swedish-born voters. But the survey cannot tell us whether they are still choosing a party, plan to vote blank or intend to stay home.

In its latest analysis, SCB reports its widest gap by birthplace in recent elections. It also found more uncertainty among younger voters, women and people with only compulsory schooling. The figures show a pattern, but not what caused it.

SCB puts three different answers in the same group: people who do not know which party to choose, people who plan to vote blank and people who say they will not vote. Those choices may have very different reasons.

Blank voting has risen among all eligible voters. In May, 7.7 percent said they would vote blank in the 2026 election, up from 5.5 percent before the 2022 election and 3 percent before the 2018 election. SCB does not publish that rise separately for foreign-born voters.

The May survey used a random national sample of 9,260 eligible voters. It received 4,542 responses, and 51 percent did not take part. That makes it harder to draw firm conclusions about smaller groups or why they answered as they did.

Foreign-born voters may sit in one line of an SCB table, but the survey does not show a shared political direction. Parties still need to find out what these voters want, and why some are considering a blank ballot or no ballot at all.

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