Sweden’s projected climate shortfall widens in new budget report
Sweden is projected to miss its national 2030 emissions target by 7.6 million tonnes under the government’s latest assessment, widening the shortfall by two million tonnes compared with last year’s forecast.
The figures appear in the government’s climate report accompanying the 2027 budget. They concern the national target for emissions outside the EU emissions-trading system, including road transport and agriculture.
The projected gap to Sweden’s 2045 climate target also grows, to 21.2 million tonnes, 1.6 million more than in the previous assessment. That calculation allows for expected carbon-removal measures.
Slower electrification of road transport is one reason for the worsening outlook. Revised calculations also show that heavy trucks emit more nitrous oxide than previously estimated, while industry’s shift away from fossil fuels is taking longer.
The national 2030 target calls for a 63% emissions cut from 1990 levels. The report shows a widening gap under assessed policies, rather than emissions already measured this year, and says further measures are needed. These national targets are separate from Sweden’s obligations under EU climate rules.
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